2009 New England Patriots Fantasy Football Preview
2008 witnessed the worst possible nightmare for both fantasy owners and New England Patriots fans alike as QB Tom Brady went down with a torn ACL during the second series of the Patriots opener last year against the Kansas City Chiefs leaving everyone devastated and wondering what course of action to take next. I easily could have been one those owners because I would have selected Brady myself. I had the 5th pick in my draft and it was going to be either Brady or Peyton Manning with that pick (see my previous article ”Draft RB’s Early: Buyer Beware to see why I go with QB’s first) and the owner with the 2nd pick selected Brady leaving me with Manning at number 5. After Brady went down Matt Cassel filled in admirably after not having started a game since high school by leading the Patriots to an 11-5 record despite missing the playoffs. Moreover, Cassel helped countless fantasy owners sustain deep playoff runs on the basis of his back to back 400 yard passing performances during the stretch run. Well, 2008 is behind us kids and the 2009 season is rapidly approaching, Cassel has left to the aforementioned Chiefs, and Brady is expected to be back under center for New England when the Patriots open their season against Terrell Owens and the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. All reports out of New England indicate that Brady is progressing fine but any QB coming off major knee surgery is surely to be rusty as any fantasy owner who had the previously mentioned Manning last year can attest to. Last year I can assure you that I was getting quite frustrated with Manning’s lack of production as he worked the kinks out so to speak (thankfully I had Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and Calvin Johnson to weather the storm while Manning re-discovered his groove). Moreover, Manning’s injury was not nearly as serious as Brady’s is hence the concern with Brady is even greater. On that note let’s analyze the Patriots fantasy prospects heading into the 2009 season.
How effective will Brady be in 2009? Any fantasy owner who drafts Brady expecting him to duplicate his 50 TD season of 2007 is dreaming. Furthermore, like I indicated above Brady will be rusty and it will be a matter of how long it will take him to get back to game form. Do you really want to take Brady if it is going to take him 4-5 weeks to shake the cob webs out? That time length represents at least 1/3 of the fantasy season and if the rest of your roster is not able to properly hold the fort down your season might be over in the blink of an eye. To Brady’s defense he still has an amazing array of weapons to work with Randy Moss, and Wes Welker in the prime of their careers and performing at Pro Bowl levels. Moreover, the team also acquired free agent Joey Galloway from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who although old will provide Brady with another outlet when Welker and Moss receive double coverage. It will be a tough call regarding Brady on draft day depending on how far he falls. I am thinking in my draft Brady will be gone somewhere in the 3rd round. Personally, I am probably leaning towards passing on Brady on account of what I endured from Manning last year. It is tough to play without a QB for the first 4-5 weeks which is what I essentially had to do. In summary, Brady is obviously still an elite fantasy QB but if you take him be leery of the potential risks that you are assuming as he attempts to regain his Pro Bowl form.
The Patriots running attack was much more relevant last year than in previous years due to Brady’s knee injury. The Pats as a team combined for 2278 yards the most since the Patriots Super Bowl season of 1985. To his credit former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels orchestrated an offense last year centered around the running game and short passing game to give Cassel the best chance for success. For the most part this philosophy worked as the Pats had a nice season considering the circumstances although just falling short of the playoffs on the last week of the season. In terms of fantasy potential the Patriots running game consists of a collection of players who will mostly serve as reserves for fantasy owners in 2009. Lawrence Maroney has been a huge disappointment since Coach Bill Belichick drafted him 21st overall from the University of Minnesota in the 2006 draft. To start, Maroney similarly to Reggie Bush struggles to run between the tackles and is primarily a sideline to sideline runner. That is if he is healthy which has been a major crux with Maroney since his inception into the NFL. Maroney has never played a full 16 games in his career and has never rushed for 900 yards. Furthermore, he has shown a propensity to fumble which does not endear him to Coach Belichick. At times throughout his career Maroney has shown glimpses of his potential but all glimpses serve to accomplish are to provide a RB with a secondary role on the bench and fantasy owners with unfulfilled seasons. Until he steps up and proves he is a consistent threat on week to week basis I want nothing to do with Maroney unless he falls very deep in my draft. Trust me, you should want nothing to do with Maroney either. Treat Maroney at best a number 3 fantasy RB and more realistically speaking more like a number 4 or 5 RB used very sparingly only in emergency scenarios. The lack of confidence in Maroney led the Pats to sign former Jacksonville Jaguar RB Fred Taylor this off season. Taylor is a borderline Hall of Famer and is the Jag’s all time leader rusher who immediately provides the Patriots with depth at the position along with Sammy Morris. Morris finished the season with a career best 727 yards and 7 TD’s and proved to be a valuable asset down the stretch for fantasy owners with his strong play. However, the addition of Taylor will certainly cut into Morris’ carries so don’t be shocked if you see the former Texas Tech product statistics revert back to what they normally are. BenJarvus Green-Ellis also came out of nowhere to slightly factor into the Patriots running game last year but will be hard pressed to make the team in 2009 with the addition of Taylor. Lamont Jordan the final member of the Pats shuffled backfield committee from ’08 has left for Denver. In summary, the Patriots ball carriers will once again consist of a Motley Crue cast of characters who will combine to give the team a nice complement to Brady’s passing attack but none of whom you want starting on your fantasy team in any capacity.
In contrast to their running game the Patriots receiving corps provide fantasy owners with some very solid options on a consistent basis. Moss is still a stud although he is getting older. In 2007 Moss posted his best numbers of his career by catching 98 balls for 1493 and a record setting 23 TD’s. Last year Moss’ numbers dipped but that can be 100% attributed to not having Brady around. With Brady back in the fold look for Moss’ numbers to climb once again and continue to treat him as a surefire number 1 fantasy wideout worthy of a pick in around the early to mid 3rd round. Welker is also a solid fantasy option and on the basis of his last 2 seasons has catapulted up to a borderline number 1 fantasy WR. Personally, I think Welker is just shy of that distinction and I have him rated a very solid number 2 wide out definitely worth the 4th-5th round pick that it will take to get him. As mentioned, the Patriots also have brought in Joey Galloway to add some more Jack Daniels to the punch so to speak. Galloway is no doubt well past his prime but all the NFL GM’s swear that he can still run and if true that will take some of the pressure off Moss and Welker who will now have a third receiver lined up with them that is more than capable of stretching the field. Is Galloway worth drafting at this point in his career? It all depends on what kind of league you are playing in, how many rounds are in your draft, and how many teams are in the league. In my 12 team CBS league which has 18 rounds Galloway will probably be drafted in the late rounds as a flier. In most 16 team leagues he will be drafted as well and probably a little earlier due to the extra teams involved. In short, take a chance on Galloway if you want as a reserve and when I mean reserve I mean that he is your 4th, 5th, or even 6th WR on your roster. He should not be starting under any circumstances not even as a number 3 WR or Flex player. No other receiver on the Pats roster including Sam Aiken, Greg Lewis, or anyone else warrant draft consideration as of this time. I would continue on that note when discussing the Pats TE situation. Benjamin Watson is useless as are both newly acquired Alex Smith (Tampa Bay) and Chris Baker (NYJ). In short, when contemplating possible starters for your fantasy team in the upcoming months focus on Brady his cast of wide outs rather than the TE’s and RB’s.
Stephen Gostkowski has filled the large shoes left by Adam Vinatieri nicely and is a worthy fantasy kicker. With kicker’s you are looking for teams that move the ball and score a lot of points. The Patiots meet both criteria so seriously consider Gostkowski come draft day this August.
The Patriots defense has been aging for years and Belichik knows it and thus took action during the draft a couple weeks ago by selecting CB Darius Butler out of Connecticut and SS Patrick Chung from Oregon. There is a good chance that both of these players will be starting in ’09 and they will team with hard hitting S Brandon Meriweather to form a solid young secondary. The Patriots in my estimation are a middle of the road defense that you should be able to start occasionally depending on their opponent. They are not by any means an elite unit at this stage but you could do a lot worse as well.
In summary, look for the Patriots star power to rebound with Brady back and to help countless fantasy owners much in the same way that they have for the previous 8-9 years. Just avoid their RB’s and you will be fine. Well, that is it for the AFC East. Next up in my series of 2009 fantasy previews is the AFC South and I will be starting with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Till next time. Have a Bud and a smile.